The world map of economic forecast 2019

da: Redazione
21 March 2019

What will be the global economic growth in 2019? And in each country? Starting from the forecasts of the United Nations we can draw the economic map of this year.

Economic growth in the world

According to United Nations forecasts, Lybia is a country with the greater economic growth in 2019. The performance of its GDP in 2019 will increase of 12.3%. Its growth has begun in 2017 with a + 45.9%, after years of civil war.

However, if we leave aside particular cases like this and look at countries not at war, Ethiopia will experience the greatest growth of7.5%, followed by Myanmar (Burma), with 7.4%, just as India. Follow Bhutan with + 7.3%, Laos and Bangladesh with 7.2% and, with 7%, Rwanda and Cambodia.

South Asia and East Africa are important for the world balance and the Indian Ocean even more.

Some countries have a fast growing population and low incomes allowing this growth, as they can still offer very low prices and very low labor costs. Here important investments have been made in recent years by global multinationals, which have moved their productions from China. It is no coincidence that Tanzania (+ 6.9%) and in the Philippines (+ 6.7%) have a fast growing population as well.

Chinese fast growing population  is up to + 6.3%. Outside the area around the Indian Ocean, the forecast for 2019 is + 6.8% for the Ivory Coast, with recent discoveries of oil fields of some importance, + 6.4% of Senegal and Sierra Leone, + 6.3% of Burkina Faso. In short, even some countries in the rest of Africa, finally free from epidemics or civil wars, are experiencing moments of development.

Growing countries in Europe

The first European country with the best performance in the 2019 GDP is Romania, which will grow by a remarkable 4.5%. This is even more relevant as population is decreasing and therefore the GDP per capita (or, in a sense, individual wealth) will increase more.

After Romania, in the EU, the trend of the best 2019 GDP is the one of Bulgaria and then Slovakia, with + 3.8% and 3.9%.

While, returning to the other continents, we find, between + 4% and +5%, countries like Egypt, with a 4.2%, and Morocco, + 4%. Below the 4% there are some of the most developed countries of the world, if we include Eastern Europe, we can consider Ukraine, Poland, Albania, with a + 3.6% and +3.7 %.

The economic situation in Italy

Italy is growing slowly (+1%) (even if the Bankitalia GDP forecast is 0.6%). Japan as well grows slowly (same + 1%) and Zimbabwe too, which has just emerged from major political turmoil. The only countries in the world with a worse perfomance than Italy are Syria and Yemen, countries engaged in armed conflict that should return to increase a little after years of collapse; the Congo; Venezuela with its persistent political crisis, finally, Equatorial Guinea, which is suffering from fluctuations in the price of oil.

What happens in the economy of the continents

In a more general view, it can be seen that the greater economic growth is affecting South Asia, which will achieve an important + 7%, accelerating compared to previous years, obviously towing India. The other emerging area is overcome, East Africa.

On average Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, etc., will grow by 6.2%. Then there is, with a + 5.6%, East Asia, following the Chinese giant, but this is the worst figure of the last 10 years, a sign of the slowdown of many countries in the area such as China, but not only that they are now becoming mature economies.

Overall, the two most populous countries in the world along with Africa and South America will drive developing countries to grow by 4.7%, better than ever since 2013 and considerably more than the developed economies, which they will score only + 1.9%, just like some of its most important components, European countries, whether they are part of the EU or not. North America will have growth of + 2.1%.

Economic trend in the African continent

Below the average of the poorest part of the world, there is the growth of some countries which are also part of it. North Africa did well with + 4.1%, slowing down in 2018, but accelerating over most of the previous years, when the Libyan and Egyptian crises stopped growing.

The 2019 GDP trend in West Africa will register a + 3.4%, which is disappointing considering that the population growth will be roughly at the same level. The performance of the Nigerian giant caused this performance by 2.4%. But since 2014 the area’s growth rates decrease. Central and Southern Africa are even worse, with a + 2.5%, which however would represent the best perfomance since 2014.

The Arab countries will grow by 3%, the best rate since 2012 and halfway between North Africa and Western Asia, with a +2.7 %.

Economic forecasts in Central America

Central America and Mexico were stable compared to previous years, growing by 2.6%, while South America is expected to recover with + 2.4%, with two years of recession, 2015 and 2016, mainly because of Brazil. More 2.4% also for the Confederation of Independent States, or Russia and most of the ex-Soviet republic around it.

Source: UN


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