After weeks of real apprehension over Germany’s early elections, the polls have finally closed. The CDU/CSU Union, led by Friedrich Merz, has secured the majority of votes, becoming the leading party. However, the results paint a rather clear picture, revealing internal political considerations within Germany that also have broader implications for the entire European Union, which collectively held its breath on Sunday, awaiting the first data.
Once again, the Christian Democrats of the CDU-CSU managed to consolidate their electorate, forming an indispensable barrier against the advance of the far right, led by Alice Weidel of the controversial Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party. For the first time since the 1930s, a far-right party in Germany has not only surpassed the electoral threshold but has also secured second place.
The Christian Democrats have seen their polling numbers rise in recent months, ultimately achieving a relatively positive result with 208 seats in the Bundesrat. However, AfD’s success will force the CDU-CSU to form a so-called “Große Koalition” with Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD). The Social Democrats, along with Christian Lindner’s Free Democratic Party (FDP), are the biggest losers of this election. Under Scholz’s leadership, the SPD has lost a significant nine percentage points.
A key factor in this decline is undoubtedly the unpopularity of the outgoing chancellor, which has caused discontent not only among voters but also within the party itself. Many members and activists would have preferred interim Defense Minister Boris Pistorius as the party’s candidate. Scholz now has no choice but to follow Merz into what will be a difficult yet necessary political cohabitation if the goal is to curb and halt the rise of the far right.
On the other hand, Alice Weidel is already looking ahead to 2030. The Christian Democrats and Social Democrats now face the challenge of reversing the economic downturn and addressing the most pressing concerns of German citizens: immigration, the energy and housing crises, and, finally, security. If the Große Koalition fails to implement comprehensive and long-term solutions in the next five years, AfD’s future success could become almost inevitable.
In recent years, AfD has gained support among Germany’s most vulnerable social groups, capitalizing on their resentment toward mainstream politics. The party has thrived on the struggles of many Germans to maintain a decent standard of living, which has been threatened by uncontrolled and poorly managed immigration by the federal government. Additionally, AfD has garnered high levels of support in eastern Germany, in the Länder that were part of the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) before reunification in 1990. These eastern regions have suffered the most from the negative effects of economic recession, and today’s Germany appears deeply divided.
For decades, German politics underestimated the challenges of reunification, relying on two unquestioned pillars that have crumbled over the past three years. The first is Germany’s privileged relationship with Russia for energy supplies, which sustained its industrial sector. The second is the taboo against public debt—a principle that ultimately contributed to the collapse of Scholz’s “traffic light” coalition.
The next five years will not be easy for Friedrich Merz and his allies. German citizens are demanding structural solutions in the areas of economy, migration, and security, both domestic and external. The current global political landscape presents additional challenges. Merz is aware of the risk that the United States may lose interest in Europe—not just economically, with the looming threat of tariffs and a new wave of protectionism against European and German goods, but also in terms of security.
At present, the Bundeswehr—the German armed forces—would not be capable of sustaining a large-scale conflict in Europe. The urgent need for massive defense investments was recognized even by the previous government. In 2024, Scholz’s administration approved the construction of the largest artillery shell production complex by Rheinmetall. Merz is well aware of Germany’s vulnerability at this historical moment and will need to bridge this strategic gap.
Regarding the ongoing negotiations on Ukraine, the future German chancellor is fully aware that Europe risks being sidelined by a potential bilateral agreement between the United States and Russia. Germany thus reflects, in a dramatic way, the same crucial decisions that the entire European Union must make for its own survival. Faced with the rise of the far right—fueled by disinformation and foreign interference from countries like Russia and China—the EU must now act in unison more than ever before.
This challenge extends beyond the single market; it encompasses all key sectors. Without coordinated efforts, the EU risks not only losing its competitiveness but also its independence and autonomy in decision-making. In Berlin, as in Brussels, time is running out. Citizens and European society as a whole are demanding concrete solutions, fully aware that the coming years will be difficult and decisive for the future and survival of the European political integration project.
